A look at the performance of U.S. stocks through recent recessions holds some clues about where markets might go next…and also some warnings.

Stocks are rallying, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite recently hitting a record and the S&P 500 standing just 3% from its highest level ever. Yet when investors get their first look at U.S. gross domestic product for the second quarter Thursday, it probably won’t be pretty. The economy likely contracted by nearly 32%, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street…

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