Increased economic uncertainty has brought added volatility into global forex markets. Here is a look at key U.S. economic data over the past week that helped move the majors.
Personal Income declined 1.1% on month in June (-0.6% expected), compared to a revised -4.4% in May. Personal Spending increased 5.6% on month in June (+5.2% expected), compared to a revised +8.5% in May.
Market News International’s Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index jumped to 51.9 on month in July (44.0 expected), from 36.6 in June, a level last reached in mid-2019.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index slipped to 72.5 on month in the July final reading (72.9 expected), from 73.2 in the July preliminary reading.
U.S. GDP dropped 32.9% on quarter in the second quarter advanced reading (-34.5% expected), from -5.0% in the first quarter third reading, marking a record low.
Personal Consumption tumbled 34.6% on quarter in the second quarter advanced reading (-34.5% expected), from a revised -6.9% in the first quarter third reading, also marking an all-time low.
Initial Jobless Claims rose to 1,434K for the week ending July 25th (1,445K expected), from a revised 1,422K in the prior week.
Continuing Claims increased to 17,018K for the week ending July 18th (16,200K expected), from a revised 16,151K in the week before.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index slipped to 44.3 for the week ending July 26th, from 44.7 in the previous week.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Mortgage Applications declined 0.8% for the week ending July 24th, from +4.1% in the previous week.
Wholesale Inventories fell 2.0% on month in the June preliminary reading (-0.5% expected), compared to -1.2% in the May final reading.
Pending Homes Sales rose 16.6% on month in June (+15.0% expected), compared to a record high of +44.3% in May.
The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target rate at 0.00% to 0.25%, as expected.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 92.6 on month in July (95.0 expected), from a revised 98.3 in June. Durable Goods Orders increased 7.3% on month in the June preliminary readings (+6.9% expected), compared to a revised +15.1% in the May final reading.
Looking at the performance of forex major pairs over the last 5 trading days, the USD was under pressure against all its major pairs. The biggest gainers of the week were the GBP (+2.7%) and the EUR (+1.53%) while the CAD was the weakest against the USD. Here is a look at this weeks big gainer, the GBP/USD from a technical perspective.
The GBP/USD continues to gain momentum after breaking above key resistance at the 1.275 level back on July 24th. The pair is approaching a new level of resistance near 1.3025. A pullback is warranted after the impressive move the pair has been on however a surge past 1.3205 without looking back is still possible. A break below 1.288 support would cal for a test of the 20-day moving average near the 1.27 area.