EUR/GBP’s rebound from 0.8670 extended to as high as 0.9000 last week. A temporary top was formed after hitting 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8670 at 0.8987. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.8987 will indicate completion of whole fall from 0.9499. Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.9182 and above. However, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.8900) will suggest completion of rebound from 0.8670. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.8670 low.

In the bigger picture, while the pull back from 0.9499 is deep, there is no sign of trend reversal yet. The up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low) should resume at a later stage to 61.8% projection of 0.6935 to 0.9263 from 0.8276 at 0.9715. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8276 support holds.

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In the long term picture, rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is still in progress. It could be resuming long term up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Decisive break of 0.9799 will target 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.


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