US stimulus hopes continued to offer support to the oil market yesterday, with ICE Brent settling more than 1.3% higher on the day, and just shy of US$45/bbl. Meanwhile, rig data from Baker Hughes at the end of last week showed that the US oil rig count fell by 4 over the last week to total just 176 – down more than 74% since mid-March, and the lowest number since 2005.
There are plenty of data releases for the oil market this week. We have the usual API and EIA weekly numbers and expectations going into these releases are that US crude oil inventories declined by around 3.7MMbbls over the last week. Then later today the EIA, will release its Short Term Energy Outlook, which will include its latest US oil production forecasts for the remainder of this year and 2021. This will be followed by the OPEC monthly report on Wednesday, which will include the group’s production numbers for July, as well as demand expectations. Then, finally, on Thursday, the IEA will release its monthly oil market report, and the market will be watching closely their outlook on demand and what this means for the oil balance in the months ahead, particularly given that OPEC+ are easing cuts now.